A03-3: Modeling of climate system dynamics in the Antarctic

Principal Investigator of Planned Research

  • OKA Akira
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Research Outline

Accumulating observational data, ice cores and geological records have shown that the ice sheet can undergo significant fluctuations even over short periods of time. As a result, there is growing concern that the Antarctic ice sheet could shrink rapidly as global warming progresses. Furthermore, the Antarctic ice sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean are closely interconnected, and there are concerns that meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet could also affect the ocean general circulation, causing climate change on a global scale. The ocean is a huge carbon and heat reservoir, and long-term carbon cycle and climate change is governed by the ocean circulation, with the Southern Ocean playing a key role. Thus, large-scale ice sheet melting is widely recognised as a potential risk to humanity, with the potential to cause global climate disturbances through impacts on ocean circulation and material circulation. However, many issues remain in the reproduction of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in current numerical climate models, particularly the inadequate reproduction of the Antarctic ice sheet, ocean and material circulations during glacial and super-interglacial periods, when the climate conditions are significantly different compared to today, which is a major concern for long-term future projections.

In this group, the various modelling methods that have been developed in the predecessor project, the Grant in Aid for scientific Research on Innovative Areas “Giant reservoirs of heat/water/material: Global environmental changes driven by Southern Ocean and Antarctic Ice Sheet” (H29-R03), will be combined with the latest findings based on observations and applied to the modelling study of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation and material circulation. The aim of our research group is to contribute to future projections by incorporating the latest knowledge based on observations into the various modelling methods developed in the predecessor project to clarify the past and present conditions and mechanisms of change in the Antarctic ice sheet, Southern Ocean and polar climates.

Keywords

Antarctic ice sheet modeling, Polar climate modeling, Ocean circulation modeling, Ocean carbon and biogeochemical cycle modeling

Members

  • YOSHIMORI Masakazu
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
  • SAITO Fuyuki
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
  • OKUNO Jun’ichi
    National Institute of Polar Research
  • KOBAYASHI Hidetaka
    University of Toyama